VIETNAMESE ECONOMY OF QUARTER III: BRIGHTER FROM HARD

The GDP growth of the third quarter / 2020 was 2.62%, after only 0.39% growth in the second quarter showed signs of economic prosperity. However, the way to recover is still very difficult.

 

Brighter from hard

If we draw a graph of the GDP growth rate of the quarters in 2020, we can clearly see the prosperity of the economy.

In the first quarter, GDP grew by 3.68% - low, but still "good" in the context of Covid-19. In the second quarter, the economy "plunged", with the growth rate being only 0.39%. In the third quarter, the sign of a steep increase was quite clear, when from the "bottom" the lowest growth of the second quarter in decades, GDP growth reached 2.62%, bringing the growth figure of 9. month to 2.12%.

Although the sign of prosperity is quite clear, it is just "flourishing in difficulties". Because of the fact, when publishing statistics on the socio-economic situation in the first 9 months of the year, General Director of General Statistics Office Nguyen Thi Huong also admitted that GDP growth in the third quarter and nine months of the year. 2020 are all at the lowest levels of September and September in the period 2011-2020. Even if we want to push back to compare it with 10 years ago, the situation is not better.

However, according to Ms. Huong's assertion, in the context of complicated developments in Covid-19, global economic recession, the fact that Vietnam's economy still has positive growth has been a remarkable result. This figure also shows the efforts of the entire political system in realizing the dual goal - both preventing and combating epidemics and maintaining economic growth.

“In the situation of the 2nd Covid-19 outbreak in Vietnam, we still had a relatively good growth in the third quarter, thereby pulling the overall growth in 9 months to 2.12%. I think this is a very remarkable result ”, Mr. Le Dinh An, an economic expert also told a reporter of the Investment Newspaper.

Before that, when Covid-19 rebounded, many economists worried that, in the third quarter, the economic situation might be more difficult. However, the exact decision of the Government to take measures of social gap in the direction of "zoning" as small as possible, while other places must be in the "new normal state" for development. making an important contribution to helping the economy inch by step through difficult areas.

The main driving force for the economy to inch up, pointed out by Mr. Le Dinh An, is industrial production, processing and manufacturing. "Although the growth rate of this region has been low compared to the same period in the past 9 months, but in the extremely difficult situation due to Covid-19, maintaining the growth momentum has been a great effort", Mr. Le Dinh An said and mentioned the "pedestal" of agriculture, as well as the important role of monetary policy in promoting growth and maintaining macroeconomic stability over the past 9 months.

The statistics show that in the general growth of the whole economy, the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector increased by 1.84%, contributing 13.62% to the general growth; industry and construction increased 3.08%, contributed 58.35%; the service sector increased by 1.37%, contributing 28.03%.

Efforts in hard times

If GDP growth in 9 months was 2.12%, the possibility of achieving growth of over 2% for the whole year is almost certain, if there is nothing unusual in the remaining quarter of the year. Last week, although there are no official statistics for 9 months, Deputy Minister of Planning and Investment Tran Quoc Phuong, when reporting at the plenary session of the Economic Committee of the National Assembly, said the meeting GDP growth of the whole year is estimated at over 2%, striving to reach about 3%.

In addition to this important target, the Ministry of Planning and Investment also said that in 2020, 8/12 targets will be achieved and exceeded the target set by the National Assembly. 4 indicators were not met, including GDP growth, the growth rate of total export turnover, the unemployment rate of working age workers in urban areas and the rate of trained labor.

Covid-19 is the primary cause of this condition. Working with the Ministry of Planning and Investment on September 29, Deputy Chairman of the National Assembly Phung Quoc Hien also acknowledged the "unpredictable" and "unimaginable" developments of Covid-19. “Covid-19 turned everything upside down. Probably from the great crisis of 1930 onwards, there has never been like that, ”said National Assembly Vice-Chairman Phung Quoc Hien.

Covid-19, as Ms. Victoria Kwakwa, Vice President of the World Bank (WB) in charge of East Asia and Pacific, created a "shock" to the global economy, causing economic growth. This year, the global economy will decrease by 5.2% - the highest level of global recession in the past 8 decades.

In that special context, many countries in the world no longer even "measure" high or low growth. In Vietnam, too, growth of more than 2% has been considered a great success.

However, according to senior expert Cao Viet Sinh, to achieve this growth, it is still necessary to pay attention to the existing difficulties of the economy. A fairly clear manifestation is that the economy has an export surplus of 17 billion USD after 9 months, while the export growth is only 4.2%, reaching over 202 billion USD.

“If the export surplus is high in the context of continued double-digit growth, that is too good. But here, the trade surplus is due to the decrease in imports. The failure of the supply chain has caused this situation, it is more difficult for Vietnamese enterprises to import input materials. This will make it difficult for production and business ”, said expert Cao Viet Sinh.

However, many forecasts say that, if there are no other shocks, in the fourth quarter, the situation will be better. Survey results of the General Statistics Office show that, up to 82.8% of enterprises in the foreign invested sector questioned forecast better and stable production and business in the fourth quarter of 2020. compared with quarter III / 2020. The rates in the state-owned enterprises and non-state enterprises were 81.7% and 80.2%, respectively. When the business has better production and business conditions, it will support economic growth.

From another perspective, Mr. Duong Manh Hung, Director of the Department of National Account System (General Statistics Office) mentioned that disbursement of public investment capital still has plenty of room for growth, thereby contributing to emphasis on the overall economic growth of the country.

Normally, in the last quarter of the year, public investment disbursement increased faster than the first quarters of the year. This is an important driving force for the economy to achieve a higher growth rate in the fourth quarter.

According to the General Statistics Office, investment capital from the State budget implemented in 9 months was estimated at 303,000 billion VND, equaling 59.7% of the year plan and increasing 33.3% over the same period last year in 2019 by 59.3% and up 6.3%), the highest in the 2016-2020 period. This is the result of efforts of the Government, ministries, sectors and localities to accelerate the implementation and disbursement of public investment capital, in order to maintain economic growth in the context of Covid-19 under control. good in Vietnam.

Prepare for the recovery phase

There is a question that has always been asked at this time of all years, is that with this year's expected GDP growth, how much will the economy grow next year?

Currently, the Socio-Economic Development Plan for 2021 has been drafted, with the overall goal set out as "focusing on effectively implementing the 'dual goal', both preventing epidemics and protecting health. healthy people, both recovering and developing socio-economy in a new normal state ”.

Some specific targets were also given. That's about 6-6.5% GDP growth; The average consumer price index (CPI) is about 4%; the proportion of total factor productivity (TFP) to growth is about 45-47%; social labor productivity increased by about 4.8% ...

That is, compared with the expected results achieved in 2020, the GDP growth rate of 2021 is set at a rather high level. However, talking to a reporter of the Investment Newspaper, senior expert Cao Viet Sinh said that, based on the low growth rate of 2020, it is appropriate to set a growth target of 6-6.5% in 2021. reasonable and fully achievable.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) in mid-September last year forecasted that Vietnam's economy will grow 6.3% in 2021, after only 1.8% this year. And the World Bank (WB) said that, if the world situation is favorable, Vietnam could achieve a growth rate of 2.8% this year and 6.8% next year. That is, forecasts are given at levels very close to the planned target that Vietnam is expected to set.

“This growth rate can be achieved, because by 2021, the global economy is expected to recover, pulling the Vietnamese economy up. However, to achieve this growth, in addition to the monetary policy that we have done well in recent years, it is necessary to focus more on fiscal and fiscal policy, ”said expert Le Dinh An.

Although it is possible that the growth target of 2021 is reasonable in the context of Covid-19, it is clear that this is a modest level in the context that Vietnam is aiming to become a modern industrialized developing country. , surpassing a low middle income.

According to the initial outlines of the 2021-2025 Socio-Economic Development Plan, which was recently reported by Deputy Minister Tran Quoc Phuong to Deputy Chairman of the National Assembly Phung Quoc Hien, the 5-year average GDP growth rate is expected to be out at 6.5-7%; GDP per capita by 2025 will reach USD 4,700-5,000. If GDP growth in 2021 reaches below 6.5%, it will "make it difficult" for the remaining years.

However, according to the share of Deputy Minister Tran Quoc Phuong, the first year of the next 5-year plan, the goal is only "economic recovery". National Assembly Vice Chairman Phung Quoc Hien also understands this. In 2021, he said, the situation was still very difficult.

“The Covid-19 pandemic has not been completely resolved before June 2021, the world cannot return to its normal state. In 2021, we may still have to worry about fighting against epidemics and economic recovery. It is likely that until 2023, the situation will return to normal, ”said National Assembly Vice-Chairman Phung Quoc Hien.

Therefore, at present, the most important task is to achieve the highest level of socio-economic development targets in 2020, and then to prepare for the recovery period, starting from the first year of the next year. plan 2021-2025.

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